Trend analysis of factors influencing student dropout in public secondary schools in Nzega District, Tanzania

2026 IJRSE – Volume 15 Issue 1

Available Online:  10 January 2026

Author/s:

Boniphace, Sospeter*
Sokoine University of Agriculture, Tanzania (sospeterbahebe@gmail.com)

Lupeja, Tabitha
Sokoine University of Agriculture, Tanzania (tabithamasele@yahoo.com)

Nkuba, Nyerere
Sokoine University of Agriculture, Tanzania (emmankuba@sua.ac.tz)

Abstract:

The study aims to examine the trends and contributing factors of student dropout in public secondary schools in Nzega District, Tanzania, from 2018 to 2023. Descriptive identified patterns in dropout trends, while binary logistic regression (BLR) determined the key factors influencing student dropout. A total of 670 students comprising both continuing and dropout students were randomly selected from randomly chosen secondary schools in the district. The findings reveal that Form Two (16.55%) and Form One (13.08%) recorded the highest student dropout rates, with female students showing a greater likelihood of dropping out (13.12%). The binary logistic regression (BLR) analysis identified the most significant predictors of student dropout as truancy (Wald = 14.276), poor academic performance (Wald = 76.472), low parental involvement (Wald = 19.399), and enrolment in Form One and Form Two (Wald = 62.156). The dropout trend for females is largely attributed to early marriages, household responsibilities, and inadequate sanitary facilities in schools. In addition, the introduction of competency-based examinations, coupled with limited parental involvement, contributed to peak dropout rates in 2022 (15.36%) and 2023 (15.22%). Conversely, the lowest dropout rates were observed in 2020 (9.04%) and 2021 (9.01%), attributed to COVID-19-related support programmes. The study recommends early academic intervention, strengthened peer support systems, increased parental engagement, improved resource allocation, and the construction of school hostels. Additionally, gender sensitization and community awareness campaigns are essential to reduce dropout rates and enhance student retention and completion.

Keywords: student dropout trend, rural secondary school, Tanzania, binary logistic regression, socio-economic factors

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.5861/ijrse.2025.25312

Cite this article:
Boniphace, S., Lupeja, T., & Nkuba, N. (2026). Trend analysis of factors influencing student dropout in public secondary schools in Nzega District, Tanzania. International Journal of Research Studies in Education, 15(1), 1-15. https://doi.org/10.5861/ijrse.2025.25312

* Corresponding Author